论文标题
减少美国生物燃料的要求减轻了全球人口的短期影响和收入增长对农业环境结果的影响
Reducing US Biofuels Requirements Mitigates Short-term Impacts of Global Population and Income Growth on Agricultural Environmental Outcomes
论文作者
论文摘要
基于生物的能源，尤其是玉米淀粉的乙醇和其他液体可再生燃料，是美国联邦和州能源政策的主要要素。这些政策是出于能源安全和缓解气候变化目标的动机，但是与基于石油的燃料相比，玉米乙醇并不能大大减少温室气体的排放。玉米生产还实现了大量的负面外部性（例如，氮浸出，较高的食物价格，缺水和间接土地利用变化）。在本文中，我们利用玉米约生产和贸易的部分均衡模型来分析美国对玉米的需求减少的潜力，以减轻基于生物的能量原料来减轻氮浸出，作物生产，农作物生产和土地使用与日益增长的全球人口和土地使用相关的，从2020年到2050年，从2020年到2050年，我们估计了23％的土地使用，我们将估计23％以下2020年的2020年度。减少将在2030年进行。在玉米和大豆的主要种植的主要流域中，结果相似。
Biobased energy, particularly corn starch-based ethanol and other liquid renewable fuels, are a major element of federal and state energy policies in the United States. These policies are motivated by energy security and climate change mitigation objectives, but corn ethanol does not substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions when compared to petroleum-based fuels. Corn production also imposes substantial negative externalities (e.g., nitrogen leaching, higher food prices, water scarcity, and indirect land use change). In this paper, we utilize a partial equilibrium model of corn-soy production and trade to analyze the potential of reduced US demand for corn as a biobased energy feedstock to mitigate increases in nitrogen leaching, crop production and land use associated with growing global populations and income from 2020 to 2050. We estimate that a 23% demand reduction would sustain land use and nitrogen leaching below 2020 levels through the year 2025, and a 41% reduction would do so through 2030. Outcomes are similar across major watersheds where corn and soy are intensively farmed.
