论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Cascading Failures in Smart Grids under Random, Targeted and Adaptive Attacks
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
We study cascading failures in smart grids, where an attacker selectively compromises the nodes with probabilities proportional to their degrees, betweenness, or clustering coefficient. This implies that nodes with high degrees, betweenness, or clustering coefficients are attacked with higher probability. We mathematically and experimentally analyze the sizes of the giant components of the networks under different types of targeted attacks, and compare the results with the corresponding sizes under random attacks. We show that networks disintegrate faster for targeted attacks compared to random attacks. A targeted attack on a small fraction of high degree nodes disintegrates one or both of the networks, whereas both the networks contain giant components for random attack on the same fraction of nodes. An important observation is that an attacker has an advantage if it compromises nodes based on their betweenness, rather than based on degree or clustering coefficient. We next study adaptive attacks, where an attacker compromises nodes in rounds. Here, some nodes are compromised in each round based on their degree, betweenness or clustering coefficients, instead of compromising all nodes together. In this case, the degree, betweenness, or clustering coefficient is calculated before the start of each round, instead of at the beginning. We show experimentally that an adversary has an advantage in this adaptive approach, compared to compromising the same number of nodes all at once.
