论文标题
新轻轨可以减少个人车辆碳排放吗?洛杉矶的前实验控制评估
Can New Light Rail Reduce Personal Vehicle Carbon Emissions? A Before-After, Experimental-Control Evaluation in Los Angeles
论文作者
论文摘要
本文使用前,实验控制组的方法来评估洛杉矶新开放的Expo轻轨运输线对个人车辆温室气体(GHG)排放的影响。我们应用了加利福尼亚空气资源委员会的2011年emfac排放模型,以估计轻轨打开前后的160户家庭的个人车辆旅行中的每日平均二氧化碳排放量。 160户家庭是实验性核心组织研究设计的一部分。大约一半的家庭生活在新的博览会轻型火车站(实验组)半英里之内,而采样家庭的平衡生活在距世博会轻型火车站(对照组)半英里以上。家庭在两次样本波(2011年秋季)和博览会打开后(2012年秋季)之前,在两次样本中追踪了所有家用车的里程表7天的里程。我们的分析表明,开放世博线对汽车的平均每日二氧化碳排放具有统计学上的显着影响。我们发现,居住在世博线站半英里处的家庭的二氧化碳排放量比轻轨开放后距离车站超过半英里的人小27.17%,而开放前没有显着差异。一个差异差异模型表明,世博系的开放与每天的家用车辆二氧化碳排放量减少3,145克,这是一种治疗效果。敏感性分析表明,当重新定义的家庭群体是居住在新的轻轨站一公里之内的人时,还会存在减少排放效应。
This paper uses a before-after, experimental-control group method to evaluate the impacts of the newly opened Expo light rail transit line in Los Angeles on personal vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We applied the California Air Resources Board's EMFAC 2011 emission model to estimate the amount of daily average CO2 emissions from personal vehicle travel for 160 households across two waves, before and after the light rail opened. The 160 households were part of an experimental-ccontrol group research design. Approximately half of the households live within a half-mile of new Expo light rail stations (the experimental group) and the balance of the sampled households live beyond a half-mile from Expo light rail stations (the control group). Households tracked odometer mileage for all household vehicles for seven days in two sample waves, before the Expo Line opened (fall, 2011) and after the Expo Line opened (fall, 2012). Our analysis indicates that opening the Expo Line had a statistically significant impact on average daily CO2 emissions from motor vehicles. We found that the CO2 emission of households who reside within a half-mile of an Expo Line station was 27.17 percent smaller than those living more than a half-mile from a station after the opening of the light rail, while no significant difference exists before the opening. A difference-in-difference model suggests that the opening of the Expo Line is associated with 3,145 g less of household vehicle CO2 emissions per day as a treatment effect. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the emission reduction effect is also present when the experimental group of households is redefined to be those living within a kilometer from the new light rail stations.