论文标题
长期短期记忆网络在美国职棒大联盟中的表现预测
Performance Prediction in Major League Baseball by Long Short-Term Memory Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
球员绩效预测在每项运动中都是一个严重的问题,因为它为经理们带来了重要的未来信息,以做出重要的决定。在棒球行业中,已经存在变量预测系统和许多类型的研究,这些研究试图提供准确的预测并帮助域用户。但是,缺乏有关基于深度学习的预测方法或系统的研究。当今,深度学习模型已被证明是不同领域中最伟大的解决方案,因此我们认为它们可以尝试并应用于棒球的预测问题。因此,在本文中,深度学习模型的预测能力将成为我们的研究问题。首先,我们选择了许多本垒打作为目标,因为它是了解棒球击球手的力量和才华的最关键指数之一。此外,我们使用顺序模型长的短期记忆作为我们在美国职棒大联盟中解决本垒打预测问题的主要方法。我们将模型的能力与多种机器学习模型和广泛使用的棒球投影系统Szymborski投影系统进行了比较。我们的结果表明,长期的短期记忆的性能比其他人更好,并且具有做出更确切的预测的能力。我们得出的结论是,长期的短期记忆是棒球绩效预测问题的可行方式,并且可以带来有价值的信息以满足用户的需求。
Player performance prediction is a serious problem in every sport since it brings valuable future information for managers to make important decisions. In baseball industries, there already existed variable prediction systems and many types of researches that attempt to provide accurate predictions and help domain users. However, it is a lack of studies about the predicting method or systems based on deep learning. Deep learning models had proven to be the greatest solutions in different fields nowadays, so we believe they could be tried and applied to the prediction problem in baseball. Hence, the predicting abilities of deep learning models are set to be our research problem in this paper. As a beginning, we select numbers of home runs as the target because it is one of the most critical indexes to understand the power and the talent of baseball hitters. Moreover, we use the sequential model Long Short-Term Memory as our main method to solve the home run prediction problem in Major League Baseball. We compare models' ability with several machine learning models and a widely used baseball projection system, sZymborski Projection System. Our results show that Long Short-Term Memory has better performance than others and has the ability to make more exact predictions. We conclude that Long Short-Term Memory is a feasible way for performance prediction problems in baseball and could bring valuable information to fit users' needs.