论文标题
使用源 - 链接建模计算的低地球轨道的容量
The Capacity of Low Earth Orbit Computed using Source-sink Modeling
论文作者
论文摘要
低地球轨道（LEO）中越来越多的人为空间对象（ASO）对空间环境的安全性和可持续性构成威胁。多家公司计划在不久的将来发射数百或数千颗卫星的大型星座，狮子座的拥堵增加以及碰撞和碎片产生的风险。本文采用了一种新的多壳多物种进化源源模型，称为MOCAT-3，以估算LEO轨道容量。特别是，提供了基于系统稳定平衡点的轨道容量的新定义。此外，考虑到平衡溶液和卫星的故障率是约束，使用优化方法来计算LEO低区域（200-900 km的高度）的最大轨道容量。因此，考虑到空间环境的稳定性，可以估算最大卫星数量的卫星数量。结果，考虑到失败率的7％，LEO的最大轨道容量估计约为1,260万卫星。还分析了未来交通启动的兼容性，尤其是在卫星星座方面，并提出了一种满足未来交通需求的策略。
The increasing number of Anthropogenic Space Objects (ASOs) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) poses a threat to the safety and sustainability of the space environment. Multiple companies are planning to launch large constellations of hundreds or thousands of satellites in the near future, increasing congestion in LEO and the risk of collisions and debris generation. This paper employs a new multi-shell multi-species evolutionary source-sink model, called MOCAT-3, to estimate LEO orbital capacity. In particular, a new definition of orbital capacity based on the stable equilibrium points of the system is provided. Moreover, an optimization approach is used to compute the maximum orbital capacity of the low region of LEO (200-900 km of altitude), considering the equilibrium solutions and the failure rate of satellites as a constraint. Hence, an estimate for the maximum number of satellites that it is possible to fit in LEO, considering the stability of the space environment, is obtained. As a result, considering 7% of failure rate, the maximum orbital capacity of LEO is estimated to be about 12.6 million satellites. Compatibility of future traffic launch, especially in terms of satellite constellations, is also analyzed and a strategy to accommodate for future traffic needs is proposed.
