论文标题
在随机波场中的时间超过船舶响应概率的有效计算
Efficient computation of temporal exceeding probability of ship responses in a random wave field
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项工作中,我们开发了一个计算框架,以有效地量化随机波场中船舶响应概率的时间,即船舶响应的时间比给定阈值超过给定阈值的时间。特别是,我们考虑较大的阈值,因此响应超出性需要被视为罕见事件。我们的计算框架建立在波场的参数化中,并通过贝叶斯实验设计(BED)在组参数空间中进行有效的采样。遵循该框架的先前工作专门研究了组最大响应的极端统计,即波群中的最大响应,但是在实践中并不直接解释(例如,其值取决于波浪组的主观定义)。为了使框架适应时间超出概率的更强度量,需要将新的发展引入床的两个组成部分(在替代模型和获取功能上),这在本文中已详细介绍。我们验证了我们的框架,该框架是根据非线性滚动方程计算出的船舶卷运动的框架,这是根据我们的结果与真实解决方案的一致以及我们结果对定义组的标准的独立性。最后,我们演示了该框架与CFD模型的耦合,以处理更现实和一般的船舶响应问题。
In this work, we develop a computational framework to efficiently quantify the temporal exceeding probability of ship responses in a random wave field, i.e., the fraction of time that ship responses exceed a given threshold. In particular, we consider large thresholds so that the response exceedance needs to be treated as rare events. Our computational framework builds on the parameterization of wave field into wave groups and efficient sampling in the group parameter space through Bayesian experimental design (BED). Previous works following this framework exclusively studied extreme statistics of group-maximum response, i.e., the maximum response within a wave group, which is however not straightforward to interpret in practice (e.g., its value depends on the subjective definition of the wave group). In order to adapt the framework to the more robust measure by the temporal exceeding probability, novel developments need to be introduced to the two components of BED (on surrogate model and acquisition function), which are detailed in the paper. We validate our framework for a case of ship roll motion calculated by a nonlinear roll equation, in terms of the agreement of our results to the true solution and the independence of our results to the criterion of defining groups. Finally, we demonstrate the coupling of the framework with CFD models to handle more realistic and general ship response problems.