论文标题

用于流量预测的图形和细心的多路卷积网络

A Graph and Attentive Multi-Path Convolutional Network for Traffic Prediction

论文作者

Qi, Jianzhong, Zhao, Zhuowei, Tanin, Egemen, Cui, Tingru, Nassir, Neema, Sarvi, Majid

论文摘要

由于流量系统的复杂性和不断变化的性质,交通预测是一个重要但又具有挑战性的问题。为了应对挑战,我们提出了一个图形和细心的多路卷积网络(GAMCN)模型,以预测未来的交通状况,例如跨给定道路网络的交通速度。我们的模型着重于影响交通状况的空间和时间因素。为了对空间因素进行建模,我们提出了一个名为LPGCN的图形卷积网络(GCN)的变体,以嵌入道路网络图顶点到一个潜在空间中,在该空间中,具有相关交通状况的顶点彼此接近。为了建模时间因素,我们使用多路卷积神经网络(CNN)来了解过去交通状况不同组合对未来交通状况的共同影响。通过嵌入预测时间引起的关注进一步调节这种关节影响,该预测时间编码了交通状况的周期性模式。我们在现实世界的道路网络和流量数据上评估了模型。实验结果表明,就预测误差而言,我们的模型优于最先进的交通预测模型高达18.9%,而预测效率则超过23.4%。

Traffic prediction is an important and yet highly challenging problem due to the complexity and constantly changing nature of traffic systems. To address the challenges, we propose a graph and attentive multi-path convolutional network (GAMCN) model to predict traffic conditions such as traffic speed across a given road network into the future. Our model focuses on the spatial and temporal factors that impact traffic conditions. To model the spatial factors, we propose a variant of the graph convolutional network (GCN) named LPGCN to embed road network graph vertices into a latent space, where vertices with correlated traffic conditions are close to each other. To model the temporal factors, we use a multi-path convolutional neural network (CNN) to learn the joint impact of different combinations of past traffic conditions on the future traffic conditions. Such a joint impact is further modulated by an attention} generated from an embedding of the prediction time, which encodes the periodic patterns of traffic conditions. We evaluate our model on real-world road networks and traffic data. The experimental results show that our model outperforms state-of-art traffic prediction models by up to 18.9% in terms of prediction errors and 23.4% in terms of prediction efficiency.

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