论文标题

用于分析温度曲线的柔性功能圆回归模型

A flexible functional-circular regression model for analyzing temperature curves

论文作者

Meilán-Vila, Andrea, Crujeiras, Rosa M., Francisco-Fernández, Mario

论文摘要

在本地规模上,温度模式的变化被个人认为是全球变暖和气候变化的最直接指标。作为一个特定的例子,对于大西洋气候地点,春季和秋季季节应分别在冬季和夏季以及夏季和冬季之间进行温和的过渡。通过观察每天的温度曲线,作为在特定日历日附加的每条曲线,这些变量的回归模型(温度曲线作为协变量和日历日为响应)对于在一定周期内建模其关系非常有用。另外,从长远来看,可以通过预测和观察比较来评估温度变化。考虑到非参数nadaraya-watson型估计量,对这项工作提出和研究了这种模型。该估计量的渐近偏差和方差及其渐近分布是得出的。在模拟研究中评估其有限样本性能,并应用该建议来研究有关温度曲线的真实数据集。

Changes on temperature patterns, on a local scale, are perceived by individuals as the most direct indicators of global warming and climate change. As a specific example, for an Atlantic climate location, spring and fall seasons should present a mild transition between winter and summer, and summer and winter, respectively. By observing daily temperature curves along time, being each curve attached to a certain calendar day, a regression model for these variables (temperature curve as covariate and calendar day as response) would be useful for modeling their relation for a certain period. In addition, temperature changes could be assessed by prediction and observation comparisons in the long run. Such a model is presented and studied in this work, considering a nonparametric Nadaraya-Watson-type estimator for functional covariate and circular response. The asymptotic bias and variance of this estimator, as well as its asymptotic distribution are derived. Its finite sample performance is evaluated in a simulation study and the proposal is applied to investigate a real-data set concerning temperature curves.

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