论文标题
扩展的蜕皮物候模型改善了蜕皮持续时间和时机的推断
Extended molt phenology models improve inferences about molt duration and timing
论文作者
论文摘要
蜕皮是鸟类和许多哺乳动物中的重要生活事件,因为羽毛和皮毛的维持对于生存至关重要。尽管如此,蜕皮仍然是一项研究的生活历史事件。需要非标准的统计技术来估计羽毛或毛皮状态的观察结果的蜕皮物候,并且现有的蜕皮物候模型具有严格的采样要求,在现实情况下可能很难满足。我们提出了一个扩展的建模框架,该框架可以容纳现实世界蜕皮数据集的特征,此类重置个体,错误分类的蜕皮状态和/或依赖于蜕皮状态依赖的采样偏差。 我们证明,当使用现有的蜕皮物候模型时,此类特征可能会导致偏见的推论,并表明我们的模型扩展可以改善在广泛的采样条件下对蜕皮物候的推断。我们希望我们的新型建模框架消除了从Realworld数据集对蜕皮物候数据进行建模的障碍,从而进一步促进了对此类数据的适当统计方法的吸收。尽管我们专注于蜕皮,但建模框架适用于可以使用有序类别或大约线性进度评分记录的其他物候过程。
Molt is an essential life-history event in birds and many mammals, as maintenance of feathers and fur is critical for survival. Despite this molt remains an understudied life-history event. Non-standard statistical techniques are required to estimate the phenology of molt from observations of plumage or pelage state, and existing molt phenology models have strict sampling requirements which can be difficult to meet under real-world conditions. We present an extended modelling framework that can accommodate features of real-world molt datasets, such re-encounters of individuals, misclassified molt states, and/or molt state-dependent sampling bias. We demonstrate that such features can lead to biased inferences when using existing molt phenology models, and show that our model extensions can improve inferences about molt phenology under a wide range of sampling conditions. We hope that our novel modelling framework removes barriers for modelling molt phenology data from realworld datasets and thereby further facilitates the uptake of appropriate statistical methods for such data. Although we focus on molt, the modelling framework is applicable to other phenological processes which can be recorded using either ordered categories or approximately linear progress scores.