论文标题
束设计中的治疗效果：强制性加班费对小时的影响
Treatment Effects in Bunching Designs: The Impact of Mandatory Overtime Pay on Hours
论文作者
论文摘要
本文研究了研究人员不假定参数选择模型时，在扭结处的识别能力。我发现，在一般选择模型中，确定对策略开关的平均因果反应等于面对两个外推问题，每个问题涉及仅以审查方式观察到的反事实选择的分布。我应用这种见解来部分确定使用行政工资数据的加班费法规对美国工人小时的影响，假设每个分布都满足未观察到的地区的弱非参数形状约束。由此产生的界限是有益的，表明每周时间的需求弹性相对较小，解决了关于加班任务的因果影响的长期问题。
This paper studies the identifying power of bunching at kinks when the researcher does not assume a parametric choice model. I find that in a general choice model, identifying the average causal response to the policy switch at a kink amounts to confronting two extrapolation problems, each about the distribution of a counterfactual choice that is observed only in a censored manner. I apply this insight to partially identify the effect of overtime pay regulation on the hours of U.S. workers using administrative payroll data, assuming that each distribution satisfies a weak non-parametric shape constraint in the region where it is not observed. The resulting bounds are informative and indicate a relatively small elasticity of demand for weekly hours, addressing a long-standing question about the causal effects of the overtime mandate.
