论文标题
依次选择，最小化失败
Sequential selections with minimization of failure
论文作者
论文摘要
决策者（DM）依次评估多达不同的，可排名的选项的n。 DM在外观时必须精确地选择最佳的。在搜索过程中，DM了解每个申请人是否是迄今为止评估的人中最好的申请人（我们称他为候选人）。 DM无法返回被拒绝的候选人。我们讨论了这个选择问题的心理方面，在文献中被称为秘书问题。该分析基于对机会的知识，以及对DM的正面和负面影响的接受和负面影响的主观评估。成功和失败的接受评估是在主观尺度上提出的。我们设定了一个最佳策略，建议将申请人分析到某个时间点（阈值时间），而无需选择任何一个，然后选择下一个遇到的候选人。确定的最佳阈值取决于选择的正面和负面影响的接受程度。本文中讨论了这个问题。
The decision-maker (DM) sequentially evaluates up to N of different, rankable options. DM must select exactly the best one at the moment of its appearance. In the process of searching, DM finds out with each applicant whether she is the best applicant among those assessed so far (we call him a candidate). DM cannot return to rejected candidates. We discuss the psychological aspects of this selection problem, known in the literature as the secretary problem. The analysis is based on knowledge of the chances, and a subjective assessment of acceptance of the positive and negative effects DM's decision. The acceptance assessment of success and failure is presented on subjective scales. We set an optimal policy that recommends analyzing applicants up to a certain point in time (a threshold time) without selecting any of them and then selecting the next encountered candidate. The determined optimal threshold depends on the level of acceptance of the positive and negative effects of the choice. This issue is discussed in the article.
