论文标题
使用物理模型和汇总数据来估计在降低免疫力和竞争变体的情况下，在以色列中的共同-19传播
Using a physical model and aggregate data to estimate the spreading of Covid-19 in Israel in the presence of waning immunity and competing variants
论文作者
论文摘要
自从中国首次检测到COVID-19病毒以来，已有数亿人被感染了两年以来，已经被感染了，数以千计的人死亡。除了对医疗解决方案（例如疫苗和药物治疗流行病）的直接需求外，电晕大流行还加强了对数学模型的需求，这些模型可以预测大流行在不断变化的现实中的传播。在这里，我们基于统计物理学的基本原理提出了一种新颖的动态粒子模型，该模型可以预测有效疫苗的存在。该粒子模型使我们能够准确检查疫苗对接种疫苗人群和整个人群的不同亚组的影响，并鉴定疫苗的减弱。此外，粒子模型可以预测两个竞争变体随着时间的流逝及其相关的发病率的流行。
In more than two years since the COVID-19 virus was first detected in China, hundreds of millions of individuals have been infected, and millions have died. Aside from the immediate need for medical solutions (such as vaccines and medications) to treat the epidemic, the Corona pandemic has strengthened the demand for mathematical models that can predict the spread of the pandemic in an ever-changing reality. Here, we present a novel, dynamic particle model based on the basic principles of statistical physics that enables the prediction of the spreading of Covid-19 in the presence of effective vaccines. This particle model enables us to accurately examine the effects of the vaccine on different subgroups of the vaccinated population and the entire population and to identify the vaccine waning. Furthermore, a particle model can predict the prevalence of two competing variants over time and their associated morbidity.
