论文标题
气候变化时间是否可逆？
Is climate change time reversible?
论文作者
论文摘要
本文提出了通过使用混合因果和非因果模型的性质来检测固定随机过程中时间可逆性的策略。它表明，当使用Hodrick-Prescott Filter计算趋势分量时，它们也可以用于非平稳过程，从而呈现时间可逆的封闭形式解决方案。本文还将环境转折点的概念与时间不可逆的统计属性联系起来，并评估了十四个气候指标。我们发现$ GHG $排放，全球温度，全球海平面，海冰区和一些自然振荡指数的时间不可逆性的证据。尽管不是结论性的，但我们的调查结果敦促实施更正政策，以避免气候变化的最坏后果，而不是错过机会窗口，尽管很快就会关闭。
This paper proposes strategies to detect time reversibility in stationary stochastic processes by using the properties of mixed causal and noncausal models. It shows that they can also be used for non-stationary processes when the trend component is computed with the Hodrick-Prescott filter rendering a time-reversible closed-form solution. This paper also links the concept of an environmental tipping point to the statistical property of time irreversibility and assesses fourteen climate indicators. We find evidence of time irreversibility in $GHG$ emissions, global temperature, global sea levels, sea ice area, and some natural oscillation indices. While not conclusive, our findings urge the implementation of correction policies to avoid the worst consequences of climate change and not miss the opportunity window, which might still be available, despite closing quickly.
