论文标题
概率太阳粒子事件预测（繁荣）模型
The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) Model
论文作者
论文摘要
概率太阳粒子事件预测（繁荣）模型预测了太阳能粒子（SEP）事件的发生概率和预期的峰值通量。预测是针对一组整体质子能量（即E $> $> $> 10，$> $ 30和$> $> $ 100 meV），从太阳耀斑（经度，大小），冠状质量弹出（宽度，速度，速度）和两者组合的特征中得出了预测。此处描述了用于得出SEP事件预测的Prosper模型方法，并根据存档数据的验证进行了一组案例研究。作为ESA未来的SEP高级警告系统（SAWS）的一部分，繁荣模型已纳入了新的操作高级太阳粒子事件铸造系统（ASPECS）工具，以提供SEP事件的现象（短期预测）。 ASPEC还提供了通过按需运行功能来审问历史案例繁荣的能力。
The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e. E$>$10, $>$30 and $>$100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), coronal mass ejections (width, speed) and combinations of both. Herein the PROSPER model methodology for deriving the SEP event forecasts is described and the validation of the model, based on archived data, is presented for a set of case studies. The PROSPER model has been incorporated into the new operational Advanced Solar Particle Event Casting System (ASPECS) tool to provide nowcasting (short term forecasting) of SEP events as part of ESA's future SEP Advanced Warning System (SAWS). ASPECS also provides the capability to interrogate PROSPER for historical cases via a run on demand functionality.
