论文标题

与接触异质性的流行病学基于个体模型的模型减少和最佳控制

Reduced modelling and optimal control of epidemiological individual-based models with contact heterogeneity

论文作者

Courtès, C., Franck, E., Lutz, K., Navoret, L., Privat, Y.

论文摘要

通过基于经典人群的模型对流行病进行建模存在缺点,即所谓的基于个体的模型能够克服,因为它们能够考虑到异质性特征,例如超级宣传者,并描述了小簇中涉及的动态。作为回报,在理论上和实践中,这些模型通常涉及大图,这些图形昂贵,并且在理论上和实践中都难以优化。 通过将强化学习理念与简化的模型相结合,我们提出了一种数值方法,以确定随机流行病学模型模型的最佳健康政策,并考虑到超级传播者。更确切地说,我们引入了涉及神经网络的确定性减少基于人群的模型,并使用它通过最佳控制方法来得出最佳的健康政策。它的目的是忠实地模仿原始,更复杂,图形模型的局部动力。粗略地说,这是通过依次训练网络来实现的,直到对相应的还原模型的最佳控制策略进行模拟时,在图模型上模拟时也可以很好地包含流行病。 在描述了这种方法的实际实施之后,我们将讨论还原模型的适用性范围,以及估计的控制策略在多大程度上可以为卫生当局提供有用的定性信息。

Modelling epidemics via classical population-based models suffers from shortcomings that so-called individual-based models are able to overcome, as they are able to take heterogeneity features into account, such as super-spreaders, and describe the dynamics involved in small clusters. In return, such models often involve large graphs which are expensive to simulate and difficult to optimize, both in theory and in practice. By combining the reinforcement learning philosophy with reduced models, we propose a numerical approach to determine optimal health policies for a stochastic epidemiological graph-model taking into account super-spreaders. More precisely, we introduce a deterministic reduced population-based model involving a neural network, and use it to derive optimal health policies through an optimal control approach. It is meant to faithfully mimic the local dynamics of the original, more complex, graph-model. Roughly speaking, this is achieved by sequentially training the network until an optimal control strategy for the corresponding reduced model manages to equally well contain the epidemic when simulated on the graph-model. After describing the practical implementation of this approach, we will discuss the range of applicability of the reduced model and to what extent the estimated control strategies could provide useful qualitative information to health authorities.

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