论文标题

基于AutoCoder的混合动力多任务预测网络,用于日常开放高低关闭印度股票的预测

Autoencoder based Hybrid Multi-Task Predictor Network for Daily Open-High-Low-Close Prices Prediction of Indian Stocks

论文作者

Chakraborty, Debasrita, Ghosh, Susmita, Ghosh, Ashish

论文摘要

股票价格高度波动,趋势的突然变化对于传统的预测模型来说通常是非常有问题的。标准的长期内存(LSTM)网络被视为此类预测的最新模型。但是,这些模型无法处理价格趋势的突然变化。此外,有一些固有的限制因素,股票的开放,高和关闭(OHLC)价格。文献缺乏有关OHLC价格固有特性的研究。我们认为,预测第二天的OHLC价格比预测股票的趋势要多得多,因为趋势主要是使用这些OHLC价格计算的。该问题主要集中于购买 - 卖出 - 托马罗(BTST)交易。在这方面,在接受股票价格进行预先培训的AE可能是有益的。提出了一个新颖的框架,其中将预训练的编码器级联在多任务预测网络的前面。这种混合网络可以利用网络组合的功能,并且可以处理OHLC的限制,并捕获价格突然的急剧变化。可以看出,这种网络在预测股票价格方面更有效。该实验已扩展到第二天推荐最有利可图,最过高的股票。该模型已针对多家印度公司进行了测试,发现该模型的建议并未导致300天的测试期间单个损失。

Stock prices are highly volatile and sudden changes in trends are often very problematic for traditional forecasting models to handle. The standard Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks are regarded as the state-of-the-art models for such predictions. But, these models fail to handle sudden and drastic changes in the price trend. Moreover, there are some inherent constraints with the open, high, low and close (OHLC) prices of the stocks. Literature lacks the study on the inherent property of OHLC prices. We argue that predicting the OHLC prices for the next day is much more informative than predicting the trends of the stocks as the trend is mostly calculated using these OHLC prices only. The problem mainly is focused on Buy-Today Sell-Tomorrow (BTST) trading. In this regard, AEs when pre-trained with the stock prices, may be beneficial. A novel framework is proposed where a pre-trained encoder is cascaded in front of the multi-task predictor network. This hybrid network can leverage the power of a combination of networks and can both handle the OHLC constraints as well as capture any sudden drastic changes in the prices. It is seen that such a network is much more efficient at predicting stock prices. The experiments have been extended to recommend the most profitable and most overbought stocks on the next day. The model has been tested for multiple Indian companies and it is found that the recommendations from the proposed model have not resulted in a single loss for a test period of 300 days.

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