论文标题
使用精确的Sir Solutions和Gumbel分布的Covid-19的系统描述
Systematic description of COVID-19 pandemic using exact SIR solutions and Gumbel distributions
论文作者
论文摘要
在十二个国家中，通过分析了COVID-19-19大流行的第一波，对死亡进行了流行病学研究。这些国家是受第一波影响最大的国家之一，即每日死亡数据系列可能非常类似于基本SIR方程的解决方案。使用适当的时间作为参数来参数求解SIR方程。研究了SIR溶液的某些一般特性，例如时间量表和不对称性。此外，我们通过Gumbel函数对SIR解决方案使用近似值，这表现出非常相似的行为。 SIR模型和Gumbel函数的参数是从数据中提取的，并比较了不同国家。发现SIR模型的解决方案的十个国家中有十个国家很好地描述了基本的繁殖数在3到8之间。
An epidemiological study of deaths is carried out in a dozen countries by analyzing the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. These countries are among those most affected by the first wave, i.e. where daily-death data series may closely resemble a solution of the basic SIR equations. The SIR equations are solved parametrically using the proper time as parameter. Some general properties of the SIR solutions are studied such as time-scaling and asymmetry. Additionally, we use approximations to the SIR solutions through Gumbel functions, which present a very similar behavior. The parameters of the SIR model and the Gumbel function are extracted from the data and compared for the different countries. It is found that ten of the selected countries are very well described by the solutions of the SIR model, with a basic reproduction number between 3 and 8.
