论文标题
基于市场价格响应学习
Optimal day-ahead offering strategy for large producers based on market price response learning
论文作者
论文摘要
在基于统一的边际定价的日前电力市场中,产品和竞标曲线的微小变化可能会大大改变所得的市场成果。在这项工作中,我们解决了在数据驱动的环境中找到最佳发行曲线(GENCO)的最佳产品曲线的问题。特别是,大型Genco的市场份额可能意味着她的产品策略可以改变边际价格形成,这可用于增加利润。我们从新颖的角度解决了这个问题。首先,我们提出了一种基于优化的方法,将每个Genco的逐步供应曲线汇总到代表性的价格能量块的一部分中。然后,通过贝叶斯线性回归方法对市场价格与产生的能源块产品之间的关系进行建模,这也使我们能够为市场对GENCO策略的敏感性产生随机场景,以回归系数概率分布表示。最后,通过采用约束学习方法,该预测模型嵌入了随机优化模型中。结果表明,允许Genco偏离她真正的边际成本会导致其利润和市场边际价格的重大变化。此外,这些结果也已在样本外验证设置中进行了测试,显示了这种最佳产品策略在现实世界中的竞赛中如何有效。
In day-ahead electricity markets based on uniform marginal pricing, small variations in the offering and bidding curves may substantially modify the resulting market outcomes. In this work, we deal with the problem of finding the optimal offering curve for a risk-averse profit-maximizing generating company (GENCO) in a data-driven context. In particular, a large GENCO's market share may imply that her offering strategy can alter the marginal price formation, which can be used to increase profit. We tackle this problem from a novel perspective. First, we propose a optimization-based methodology to summarize each GENCO's step-wise supply curves into a subset of representative price-energy blocks. Then, the relationship between the market price and the resulting energy block offering prices is modeled through a Bayesian linear regression approach, which also allows us to generate stochastic scenarios for the sensibility of the market towards the GENCO strategy, represented by the regression coefficient probabilistic distributions. Finally, this predictive model is embedded in the stochastic optimization model by employing a constraint learning approach. Results show how allowing the GENCO to deviate from her true marginal costs renders significant changes in her profits and the market marginal price. Furthermore, these results have also been tested in an out-of-sample validation setting, showing how this optimal offering strategy is also effective in a real-world market contest.