论文标题
在AMES-USDOE-FBI研究中重新分析可重复性和可重复性
A Re-analysis of Repeatability and Reproducibility in the Ames-USDOE-FBI Study
论文作者
论文摘要
法医枪支的身份，训练有素的枪支检查员对子弹或墨盒是否来自通用武器的决定一直是刑事法院的中流tay。法医枪支识别的可靠性在一般科学界受到了挑战，并且作为回应，已经进行了几项研究，目的是表明枪支检查是准确的，也就是说，错误率较低。一致性的问题较少。是否对同一子弹或墨盒案例进行两次检查，是由审查员在不同场合进行的同一结论 - 内部的可靠性或可重复性 - 或两名审查员 - 互可靠性或可重复性。 AMES实验室USDOE在联邦调查局的2020年报告中描述的一项重要研究超出了对枪支检查可重复性和可重复性调查的准确性的考虑。该报告的结论是自相矛盾的。观察到的检查员与自己或其他审查员达成协议似乎是中等的。但是，这项研究得出的结论是可重复性和可重复性令人满意的，理由是观察到的一致性超过了所谓的预期一致性。我们发现，适当地使用预期协议，这并不建议令人满意的可重复性和可重复性，而是相反。
Forensic firearms identification, the determination by a trained firearms examiner as to whether or not bullets or cartridges came from a common weapon, has long been a mainstay in the criminal courts. Reliability of forensic firearms identification has been challenged in the general scientific community, and, in response, several studies have been carried out aimed at showing that firearms examination is accurate, that is, has low error rates. Less studied has been the question of consistency, of. whether two examinations of the same bullets or cartridge cases come to the same conclusion, carried out by an examiner on separate occasions -- intrarater reliability or repeatability -- or by two examiners -- interrater reliability or reproducibility. One important study, described in a 2020 Report by the Ames Laboratory-USDOE to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, went beyond considerations of accuracy to investigate firearms examination repeatability and reproducibility. The Report's conclusions were paradoxical. The observed agreement of examiners with themselves or with other examiners appears mediocre. However, the study concluded repeatability and reproducibility are satisfactory, on grounds that the observed agreement exceeds a quantity called the expected agreement. We find that appropriately employing expected agreement as it was intended does not suggest satisfactory repeatability and reproducibility, but the opposite.
