论文标题
一般循环模型是否已过时?
Are General Circulation Models obsolete?
论文作者
论文摘要
几十年来,传统的一般循环模型或GCMS(即具有可调参数方程式表示的未解决术语的3D动力学模型)一直是气候研究的中流,并且一些开创性的研究最近被诺贝尔物理学奖所认可。然而,关于他们在未来的持续角色存在巨大的辩论。经常被提及GCM的局限性是各模型的结构误差和不确定性,这些模型具有不同的量表。并调整了模型以重现观察到的地球的某些方面的事实。我们在未来一代模型的背景下考虑这些缺点,这些模型可能通过更高的分辨率和细节来解决这些问题,或者通过使用机器学习技术将它们与观察,理论和过程模型更好地匹配。我们的论点是,校准远非模型的弱点,是复杂系统模拟的重要因素,并有助于我们对它们内部工作的理解。可以校准模型以揭示细节细节或对外部扰动的全局响应。新方法使我们能够阐明和改善气候过程的抽象表示不同级别之间的联系,而我们的理解位于整个模型的整个层次结构中,在该模型中,GCM将在可预见的未来继续发挥核心作用。
Traditional general circulation models, or GCMs -- i.e. 3D dynamical models with unresolved terms represented in equations with tunable parameters -- have been a mainstay of climate research for several decades, and some of the pioneering studies have recently been recognized by a Nobel prize in Physics. Yet, there is considerable debate around their continuing role in the future. Frequently mentioned as limitations of GCMs are the structural error and uncertainty across models with different representations of unresolved scales; and the fact that the models are tuned to reproduce certain aspects of the observed Earth. We consider these shortcomings in the context of a future generation of models that may address these issues through substantially higher resolution and detail, or through the use of machine learning techniques to match them better to observations, theory, and process models. It is our contention that calibration, far from being a weakness of models, is an essential element in the simulation of complex systems, and contributes to our understanding of their inner workings. Models can be calibrated to reveal both fine-scale detail, or the global response to external perturbations. New methods enable us to articulate and improve the connections between the different levels of abstract representation of climate processes, and our understanding resides in an entire hierarchy of models where GCMs will continue to play a central role for the foreseeable future..