论文标题
通过尺寸分解的广义多项式膨胀,双性恋有条件估算风险估计
Bi-fidelity conditional value-at-risk estimation by dimensionally decomposed generalized polynomial chaos expansion
论文作者
论文摘要
数字双胞胎模型使我们能够不断评估复杂系统损坏和故障的可能风险。然而,高保真的数字双胞胎模型在计算上可能很昂贵,从而使评估的快速评估具有挑战性。为了实现这一目标,本文提出了一种新型的双重方法,用于估计受依赖和高维输入的非线性系统的条件价值风险(CVAR)。对于可以快速评估的模型,提出了通过基于标准采样的CVAR估计的尺寸分解的广义多项式混乱扩展(DD-GPCE)近似的方法。对于昂贵的评估模型,提出了一种新的BIFIDELITY方法,该方法将DD-GPCE与傅立叶 - 多项式扩展相结合,对随机低保真和高保真输出数据之间的映射进行了映射,以确保计算效率。该方法在低保真输出的随机变量中采用措施一致的正规多项式,以近似高保真输出。具有36维(相关随机变量)输入的结构力学桁架的数值结果表明,DD-GPCE方法提供了非常准确的CVAR估计值,比标准GPCE近似值要低得多的计算工作。第二个例子考虑了估计纤维增强复合层压板损害风险的现实问题。高保真模型是一种有限元模拟,对于风险分析(例如CVAR计算)而言非常昂贵。在这里,新型的双性恋方法可以准确估计CVAR,因为它在估计过程中包括低保真模型,并且仅使用少数高保真模型评估来显着提高准确性。
Digital twin models allow us to continuously assess the possible risk of damage and failure of a complex system. Yet high-fidelity digital twin models can be computationally expensive, making quick-turnaround assessment challenging. Towards this goal, this article proposes a novel bi-fidelity method for estimating the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) for nonlinear systems subject to dependent and high-dimensional inputs. For models that can be evaluated fast, a method that integrates the dimensionally decomposed generalized polynomial chaos expansion (DD-GPCE) approximation with a standard sampling-based CVaR estimation is proposed. For expensive-to-evaluate models, a new bi-fidelity method is proposed that couples the DD-GPCE with a Fourier-polynomial expansion of the mapping between the stochastic low-fidelity and high-fidelity output data to ensure computational efficiency. The method employs measure-consistent orthonormal polynomials in the random variable of the low-fidelity output to approximate the high-fidelity output. Numerical results for a structural mechanics truss with 36-dimensional (dependent random variable) inputs indicate that the DD-GPCE method provides very accurate CVaR estimates that require much lower computational effort than standard GPCE approximations. A second example considers the realistic problem of estimating the risk of damage to a fiber-reinforced composite laminate. The high-fidelity model is a finite element simulation that is prohibitively expensive for risk analysis, such as CVaR computation. Here, the novel bi-fidelity method can accurately estimate CVaR as it includes low-fidelity models in the estimation procedure and uses only a few high-fidelity model evaluations to significantly increase accuracy.