论文标题
建模COVID-19疫苗诱导的免疫记忆发展及其与抗体水平和传染性的联系
Modeling COVID-19 vaccine-induced immunological memory development and its links to antibody level and infectiousness
论文作者
论文摘要
事实证明，Covid-19-19疫苗可有效防止SARS-COV-2感染。然而，尚未完全了解疫苗诱导的免疫记忆发展和中和抗体产生的动力学，从而限制了疫苗发育和疫苗接种方案的确定。本文中，我们构建了一个数学模型，以根据拟合病毒感染和疫苗接种数据集来表征疫苗诱导的免疫反应。以冠状动脉纳瓦克为例，我们揭示了疫苗诱导的免疫记忆发展与中和抗体水平之间的关联。完整的免疫记忆的建立需要在第一剂和第二剂剂量后的6个月以上，此后，助推器射击可以诱导高水平中和抗体。通过引入病毒感染后的最大病毒负荷和恢复时间，我们对疫苗对病毒感染的保护作用进行了定量研究。因此，我们优化了疫苗接种方案，包括剂量和疫苗接种时间，并预测了第四剂量的影响。最后，通过结合病毒传播模型，我们显示了通过疫苗接种抑制病毒传播的抑制，这可能对制定公共卫生政策有启发性。
COVID-19 vaccines have proven to be effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, the dynamics of vaccine-induced immunological memory development and neutralizing antibodies generation are not fully understood, limiting vaccine development and vaccination regimen determination. Herein, we constructed a mathematical model to characterize the vaccine-induced immune response based on fitting the viral infection and vaccination datasets. With the example of CoronaVac, we revealed the association between vaccine-induced immunological memory development and neutralizing antibody levels. The establishment of the intact immunological memory requires more than 6 months after the first and second doses, after that a booster shot can induce high levels neutralizing antibodies. By introducing the maximum viral load and recovery time after viral infection, we quantitatively studied the protective effect of vaccines against viral infection. Accordingly, we optimized the vaccination regimen, including dose and vaccination timing, and predicted the effect of the fourth dose. Last, by combining the viral transmission model, we showed the suppression of virus transmission by vaccination, which may be instructive for the development of public health policies.
