论文标题

卫星主动射击数据的同化数据

Assimilation of Satellite Active Fires Data

论文作者

Haley, James D.

论文摘要

荒地大火在我们的社会中构成了越来越严重的问题。这些火灾的数量和严重性已经增加了很多年。野火对生命和财产构成了直接威胁,以及通过辅助作用(如降低空气质量)的威胁。本文的目的是开发技术,通过使用卫星火观测来改善野火建模能力来帮助抗击野火的影响。其他研究人员已经在这个方向上完成了很多工作。我们的工作旨在使用数学上合理的方法扩展知识体,以利用有关野火的信息,这些信息考虑了卫星数据中固有的不确定性。 在本文中,我们探讨了使用卫星数据来帮助初始化和引导野火模拟的方法。特别是,我们开发了一种构造火灾历史的方法,一种用于吸收野火数据的新技术,以及一种通过推断火势域中的燃料信息来修改建模火的行为的方法。这些目标取决于能够估算大火在感兴趣的地理区域的每个地点首次到达的时间。由于通常不可用的对真实野火的详细知识,因此在本文中开发和测试方法的基本过程将是使用模拟数据首先处理,以便可以将产生的估计值与已知解决方案进行比较。这样开发的方法然后将其应用于现实世界情景。对这些方案的分析表明,建造火灾和数据同化历史的工作改善了火灾建模能力。这项研究很重要,因为它使我们可以更好地了解使用卫星数据为野火模型提供信息的能力和局限性,并且它指向了建模火灾行为的新途径。

Wildland fires pose an increasingly serious problem in our society. The number and severity of these fires has been rising for many years. Wildfires pose direct threats to life and property as well as threats through ancillary effects like reduced air quality. The aim of this thesis is to develop techniques to help combat the impacts of wildfires by improving wildfire modeling capabilities by using satellite fire observations. Already much work has been done in this direction by other researchers. Our work seeks to expand the body of knowledge using mathematically sound methods to utilize information about wildfires that considers the uncertainties inherent in the satellite data. In this thesis we explore methods for using satellite data to help initialize and steer wildfire simulations. In particular, we develop a method for constructing the history of a fire, a new technique for assimilating wildfire data, and a method for modifying the behavior of a modeled fire by inferring information about the fuels in the fire domain. These goals rely on being able to estimate the time a fire first arrived at every location in a geographic region of interest. Because detailed knowledge of real wildfires is typically unavailable, the basic procedure for developing and testing the methods in this thesis will be to first work with simulated data so that the estimates produced can be compared with known solutions. The methods thus developed are then applied to real-world scenarios. Analysis of these scenarios shows that the work with constructing the history of fires and data assimilation improves improves fire modeling capabilities. The research is significant because it gives us a better understanding of the capabilities and limitations of using satellite data to inform wildfire models and it points the way towards new avenues for modeling fire behavior.

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