论文标题

基于贝叶斯网络基于类似物聚类的高级方法,使用贝叶斯网络评估石油储层恢复因子

Oil reservoir recovery factor assessment using Bayesian networks based on advanced approaches to analogues clustering

论文作者

Andriushchenko, Petr, Deeva, Irina, Bubnova, Anna, Voskresenskiy, Anton, Bukhanov, Nikita, Nikitin, Nikolay, Kalyuzhnaya, Anna

论文摘要

这项工作的重点是石油和天然气储存参数的建模和归因,特别是使用贝叶斯网络(BNS)预测石油回收因子(RF)的问题。恢复预测对石油和天然气行业至关重要,因为它直接影响了公司的利润。但是,当前预测RF的方法很复杂且计算昂贵。此外,它们需要大量数据,并且在水库开发的早期阶段很难限制。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了BN方法,并描述了提高参数预测准确性的方法。考虑了BNS的各种训练超参数,并使用了最好的训练。考虑了结构和参数学习,数据离散化和归一化的方法,目标储层的类似物,网络聚类和数据过滤的类似物。最后,使用合成油库的物理模型来验证BNS对RF的预测。基于BN的所有建模方法提供了物理模型预测的RF的置信区间的全部覆盖,但同时需要更少的时间和数据进行建模,这表明了在储层开发的早期阶段使用的可能性。这项工作的主要结果可以被视为开发一种方法,用于研究基于贝叶斯网络的储层参数,基于少量数据,并且最少的专家知识参与。该方法是在恢复因子推出的问题的示例中进行了测试。

The work focuses on the modelling and imputation of oil and gas reservoirs parameters, specifically, the problem of predicting the oil recovery factor (RF) using Bayesian networks (BNs). Recovery forecasting is critical for the oil and gas industry as it directly affects a company's profit. However, current approaches to forecasting the RF are complex and computationally expensive. In addition, they require vast amount of data and are difficult to constrain in the early stages of reservoir development. To address this problem, we propose a BN approach and describe ways to improve parameter predictions' accuracy. Various training hyperparameters for BNs were considered, and the best ones were used. The approaches of structure and parameter learning, data discretization and normalization, subsampling on analogues of the target reservoir, clustering of networks and data filtering were considered. Finally, a physical model of a synthetic oil reservoir was used to validate BNs' predictions of the RF. All approaches to modelling based on BNs provide full coverage of the confidence interval for the RF predicted by the physical model, but at the same time require less time and data for modelling, which demonstrates the possibility of using in the early stages of reservoirs development. The main result of the work can be considered the development of a methodology for studying the parameters of reservoirs based on Bayesian networks built on small amounts of data and with minimal involvement of expert knowledge. The methodology was tested on the example of the problem of the recovery factor imputation.

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