论文标题
极地田间积聚与Waldmeier效应的物理联系扩大了早期太阳周期预测的范围：25周期可能比周期24稍强。
Physical link of the polar field build-up with the Waldmeier effect broadens the scope of early solar cycle prediction: Cycle 25 is likely to be slightly stronger than Cycle 24
论文作者
论文摘要
太阳周期的预测很具有挑战性，但必不可少，因为它驱动了太空天气。已经做出了几种幅度不同的预测，对正在进行的周期进行了〜25。我们表明，Waldmeier效应（WE2）的一个方面，即，循环的上升速率和振幅之间存在很强的正相关，它与上一个循环反转后的堆积。我们发现极地场的上升速率与下一个太阳周期的上升速率和幅度高度相关。因此，可以在上一个周期的极地场逆转后仅几年进行太阳周期振幅的预测，从而将太阳周期预测的范围扩展到比通常时间更早的时间。我们基于先前极地场的上升速率的周期25的预测是$ 137 \ pm 23 $，它非常接近预测$ 138 \ pm 26 $，基于从正在进行的周期的可用2年的日光点数据中计算出的WE2。
Prediction of the solar cycle is challenging but essential because it drives space weather. Several predictions with varying amplitudes of the ongoing Cycle~25 have been made. We show that an aspect of the Waldmeier effect (WE2), i.e., a strong positive correlation between the rise rate and the amplitude of the cycle, has a physical link with the build-up of the previous cycle's polar field after its reversal. We find that the rise rate of the polar field is highly correlated with the rise rate and the amplitude of the next solar cycle. Thus, the prediction of the amplitude of the solar cycle can be made just a few years after the reversal of the previous cycle's polar field, thereby extending the scope of the solar cycle prediction to much earlier than the usual time. Our prediction of Cycle 25 based on the rise rate of the previous polar field is $137\pm 23$, which is quite close to the prediction $138\pm 26$ based on the WE2 computed from the available 2 years sunspot data of the ongoing cycle.
