论文标题
历史战的连续流模型：对皮克特的负责
Continuous Flow Model of a Historical Battle: A Fresh Look at Pickett's charge
论文作者
论文摘要
基于个人保护和亚基身份的跟踪，步兵行为的连续流程模型已被足够详细地开发，现在可以应用于对历史战斗的现实模拟。皮克特（Pickett）在1863年的葛底斯堡（Gettysburg）战役中的指控被选为模型的初步应用。这种情况是对当前数学模型的良好测试，因为在步行或骑马行动的情况下采用了许多现代的军事战术，并且历史地图和部队数字可获得。与离散的代理模型相比，发现流模型更好地捕获了力与地形和彼此的相互作用。进行了旅的模拟，忠于历史事件的细节。在伤亡人数数量中，不对称的主要来源是同盟力量在移动时使用有效的火势。对具有和没有地形影响的模拟的比较表明，它们放慢了战斗的步伐并偏爱后卫，使攻击者长时间暴露了大火。对基线旅级场景的1000个随机扰动的合奏的可能结果进行了统计分析。与历史事件一致，发现只有6％的场景导致结果可以被视为同盟胜利。
A continuous flow model of infantry behavior, based on conservation of individuals and tracking of subunit identity, has been developed in sufficient detail that it can now be applied to a realistic simulation of a historical battle. Pickett's charge during the 1863 Battle of Gettysburg, Pennsylvania in the U.S. Civil War was chosen as an initial application of the model. This scenario is a good test of the current mathematical model because many modern military tactics were employed, in a context where the action took place on foot or horseback, and the historical map and troop numbers are available. Compared to a discrete agent model, the flow model was found to better capture the interaction of the forces with the terrain and each other. A brigade-level simulation, faithful to the details of the historical events, was performed. The main source of asymmetry in the numbers of casualties was found to be the inability of the Confederate forces to use effective ranged fire while they were moving. Comparison of simulations with and without terrain effects showed that they slow the pace of battle and favor the defenders, exposing the attackers to heavy ranged fire for an extended period. A statistical analysis of possible outcomes for an ensemble of 1000 randomized perturbations of the baseline brigade-level scenario was carried out. Consistent with historical events, it was found that only 6 percent of the scenarios resulted in an outcome that could be considered a Confederate victory.
