论文标题
进化行为动力学下的流行病传播：稳定和分叉分析
Epidemic Propagation under Evolutionary Behavioral Dynamics: Stability and Bifurcation Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑了SIS流行模型的类别，其中大量个体选择采用保护还是随着流行病的发展而受到保护。对于一个易感人士而言，采用保护可以减少被感染的可能性，但它的成本与被感染的瞬时风险相同。与未受保护的人相比，采用保护的受感染者会传播具有较小概率的新感染。我们专注于复制器进化动力学，以模拟易感和感染亚群的保护决策的演变。我们完全表征了由此产生的耦合流行病和复制器动力学的平衡的存在和局部稳定性。我们进一步展示了随着某些参数的变化，如何交换不同平衡点的稳定性。最后，我们研究了流行病与进化动力学之间的时间尺度分离下的系统行为。
We consider the class of SIS epidemic models in which a large population of individuals chooses whether to adopt protection or to remain unprotected as the epidemic evolves. For a susceptible individual, adopting protection reduces the probability of becoming infected but it comes with a cost that is weighed with the instantaneous risk of becoming infected. An infected individual adopting protection transmits a new infection with a smaller probability compared to an unprotected infected individual. We focus on the replicator evolutionary dynamics to model the evolution of protection decisions by susceptible and infected subpopulations. We completely characterize the existence and local stability of the equilibria of the resulting coupled epidemic and replicator dynamics. We further show how the stability of different equilibrium points gets exchanged as certain parameters change. Finally, we investigate the system behavior under timescale separation between the epidemic and the evolutionary dynamics.
