论文标题
关于破裂可预测性的概率观点：所有地震都会发生类似的发展
A probabilistic view on rupture predictability: all earthquakes evolve similarly
论文作者
论文摘要
最大地震的破裂可以持续几秒钟到几分钟。对最终地震大小的早期评估对于预警系统至关重要。但是，目前尚不清楚在破裂历史中何时可以预测这个最终尺寸。在这里，我们介绍了破裂演化的概率观点 - 事件变得大的可能性 - 允许明确，有充分的答案，对地震物理和预警的影响。我们将我们的方法应用于基于力矩函数或宽带远程震荡P到达的实时幅度估计。在这两种情况下，我们都发现有力和有原则的证据反对提前破裂的可预测性，因为只有观察到一半破裂的一半破裂，大小的破裂之间的区别仅发生。即使那样，也不可能预见未来的覆盖。我们的结果暗示，大小破裂的普遍起始行为。
Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this final size can be predicted. Here we introduce a probabilistic view of rupture evolution - how likely is the event to become large - allowing for a clear and well-founded answer with implications for earthquake physics and early warning. We apply our approach to real time magnitude estimation based on either moment rate functions or broadband teleseismic P arrivals. In both cases, we find strong and principled evidence against early rupture predictability because differentiation between differently sized ruptures only occurs once half of the rupture has been observed. Even then, it is impossible to foresee future asperities. Our results hint towards a universal initiation behavior for small and large ruptures.
