论文标题
连续的多个假设测试框架,用于最佳系外行星检测
A continuous multiple hypothesis testing framework for optimal exoplanet detection
论文作者
论文摘要
在搜索系外行星时,人们想计算有多少行星横向给定的恒星,并确定其特征是什么。如果估计的行星特征距离真正存在的行星的特征太远,则应将其视为虚假检测。此设置是一个一般实例:旨在检索因滋扰信号损坏的数据集中的参数组件,其参数具有一定的准确性。我们表现出最小化错误和遗漏检测的检测标准,无论是其相对成本的函数还是预期的假检测次数有限的。如果可以详细讨论的技术分离组件,则最佳检测标准是作为贝叶斯证据计算的副产品获得的后验概率。在模型中保证了最佳性,我们引入了模型批评方法,以确保标准可靠地模型错误。我们在两个模拟系外行星搜索的模拟上显示,最佳标准可以显着超过其他标准。最后,我们表明我们的框架为识别混合模型的组件和贝叶斯错误发现率控制的组件提供了解决方案,当假设不是离散时。
When searching for exoplanets, one wants to count how many planets orbit a given star, and to determine what their characteristics are. If the estimated planet characteristics are too far from those of a planet truly present, this should be considered as a false detection. This setting is a particular instance of a general one: aiming to retrieve parametric components in a dataset corrupted by nuisance signals, with a certain accuracy on their parameters. We exhibit a detection criterion minimizing false and missed detections, either as a function of their relative cost or when the expected number of false detections is bounded. If the components can be separated in a technical sense discussed in detail, the optimal detection criterion is a posterior probability obtained as a by-product of Bayesian evidence calculations. Optimality is guaranteed within a model, and we introduce model criticism methods to ensure that the criterion is robust to model errors. We show on two simulations emulating exoplanet searches that the optimal criterion can significantly outperform other criteria. Finally, we show that our framework offers solutions for the identification of components of mixture models and Bayesian false discovery rate control when hypotheses are not discrete.