论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Manoeuvre detection in Low Earth Orbit with Radar Data

论文作者

Montilla, Jose M., Sanchez, Julio C., Vazquez, Rafael, Galan-Vioque, Jorge, Benayas, Javier Rey, Siminski, Jan

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

This work outlines and assesses several methods for the detection of manoeuvres in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) from surveillance radar data. To be able to detect manoeuvres, the main starting assumption is that the object under analysis has an orbit known with a sufficient degree of precision. Based on the precise (a posteriori) orbit and radar data, several manoeuvre detection methods are presented; one is based on unscented Kalman filtering, whereas two others algorithms are based on reachability analysis of the state, which correlates its prediction set with the next track from the radar. The filtering algorithm can be extended for several radar tracks, whereas the reachability-based methods are more precise in detecting manoeuvres. Then, to inherit the best properties of both classes of algorithms, a manoeuvre detection filter that combines both concepts is finally presented. Manoeuvre detection results are presented first for simulated scenarios -- for validation and calibration purposes -- and later for real data. Radar information comes from the Spanish Space Surveillance Radar (S3TSR), with real manoeuvre information and high-quality ephemerides. The results show promise, taking into account that a single surveillance radar is the only source of data, obtaining manoeuvre detection rates of more than 50% and false positive rates of less than 10%.

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