论文标题
预测中国大陆计划的地震网络的未来表现
Predicting the Future Performance of the Planned Seismic Network in Mainland China
论文作者
论文摘要
中国新的宽带地震网络将从大约950增加到2000年。可以通过完整性幅度（MC）度量来量化对预期频繁的较小地震的高分辨率监测。使用贝叶斯的完整性（BMC）方法，我们基于在当前地震目录（2012年至2021年）和网络配置上校准的先前模型，生成了新网络预测的MC的空间分布。如果目前99％的中国大陆被覆盖至MC = 2.7，则该阈值很快将降至MC = 2.0。这意味着每年可用的地震大约增加了3倍。基于观察到的地震前体至少在低于主震幅度的3个单位时观察到地震前体，新的地震网络应实现几乎全部覆盖的目标，以获得最佳的基于地震的地震预测研究。
The new broadband seismic network in China will increase the number of stations from approximately 950 to 2000. The higher-resolution monitoring of the frequent smaller earthquakes expected inside Mainland China can be quantified via the completeness magnitude (Mc) metric. Using the Bayesian Magnitude of Completeness (BMC) method, we generate the spatial distribution of Mc predicted for the new network, based on the prior model calibrated on the current earthquake catalog (2012 to 2021) and network configuration. If 99% of Mainland China is at present covered down to Mc = 2.7, this threshold will soon fall to Mc = 2.0. This means approximately 3 times more earthquakes available per year. Based on the observation that seismic precursors are most likely to be observed at least at 3 units below the mainshock magnitude, the new seismic network shall achieve the goal of almost total coverage for optimal seismic-based earthquake prediction research.
