论文标题
短期乘客流量预测假期中城市铁路运输系统中的短期乘客流量预测的时空注意融合网络
Spatial-Temporal Attention Fusion Network for short-term passenger flow prediction on holidays in urban rail transit systems
论文作者
论文摘要
城市铁路运输系统的短期乘客流量预测对交通运营和管理至关重要。新兴的基于学习的模型提供了提高预测准确性的有效方法。但是,大多数现有模型主要预测一般工作日或周末的乘客流量。只有很少的研究重点是预测假期的乘客流量,这对于交通管理的突然性和不规则性而言是一项艰巨的任务。为此,我们提出了一个基于深度学习的模型,名为“空间时间注意融合网络”,该模型包括一个新型的多刻录注意网络,一个召开式块和用于假期短期乘客流量预测的特征融合块。使用多画像注意力网络,以动态地提取乘客流量的复杂空间依赖性,并应用转变块从全球和本地角度提取乘客流量的时间依赖性。此外,除了历史乘客流数据外,社交媒体数据已被证明可以有效地反映事件下乘客流量的演化趋势,还融合到了STAFN的功能融合块中。在新年假期,对中国的两个大规模城市铁路运输数据集进行了测试,该模型的预测性能与几种常规预测模型的预测性能进行了比较。结果证明了基准方法之间的更好鲁棒性和优势,这可以为假期短期乘客流量预测的实际应用提供压倒性的支持。
The short term passenger flow prediction of the urban rail transit system is of great significance for traffic operation and management. The emerging deep learning-based models provide effective methods to improve prediction accuracy. However, most of the existing models mainly predict the passenger flow on general weekdays or weekends. There are only few studies focusing on predicting the passenger flow on holidays, which is a significantly challenging task for traffic management because of its suddenness and irregularity. To this end, we propose a deep learning-based model named Spatial Temporal Attention Fusion Network comprising a novel Multi-Graph Attention Network, a Conv-Attention Block, and Feature Fusion Block for short-term passenger flow prediction on holidays. The multi-graph attention network is applied to extract the complex spatial dependencies of passenger flow dynamically and the conv-attention block is applied to extract the temporal dependencies of passenger flow from global and local perspectives. Moreover, in addition to the historical passenger flow data, the social media data, which has been proven that they can effectively reflect the evolution trend of passenger flow under events, are also fused into the feature fusion block of STAFN. The STAFN is tested on two large-scale urban rail transit AFC datasets from China on the New Year holiday, and the prediction performance of the model are compared with that of several conventional prediction models. Results demonstrate its better robustness and advantages among benchmark methods, which can provide overwhelming support for practical applications of short term passenger flow prediction on holidays.