论文标题
贝叶斯深度学习的近期气候预测方法
A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near-Term Climate Prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
由于模型偏见和相关的初始化冲击是严重的缺点,这些缺点降低了最先进的际气候预测工作中的预测技能,因此我们采取了一种基于机器的基于机器学习的方法来进行气候预测。我们认为的示例问题设置包括预测社区地球系统模型的工业前控制模拟中北大西洋海面温度的自然变异性(CESM2)。尽管以前的工作考虑了在此和其他类似的问题设置中使用的经常性网络,例如卷积LSTMS和储层计算网络,但我们目前专注于使用前馈卷积网络。特别是,我们发现具有Densenet体系结构的前进卷积网络能够在预测技能方面胜过卷积LSTM。接下来,我们继续考虑基于Stein变异梯度下降的同一网络的概率表达,发现除了提供预测性不确定性的有用度量外,概率(贝叶斯)版本还改善了其确定性的预测技能。最后,我们通过使用在集合数值天气预测的背景下开发的分析工具来表征在概率设置中获得的ML模型集合的可靠性。
Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate prediction. The example problem setting we consider consists of predicting natural variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on the interannual timescale in the pre-industrial control simulation of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2). While previous works have considered the use of recurrent networks such as convolutional LSTMs and reservoir computing networks in this and other similar problem settings, we currently focus on the use of feedforward convolutional networks. In particular, we find that a feedforward convolutional network with a Densenet architecture is able to outperform a convolutional LSTM in terms of predictive skill. Next, we go on to consider a probabilistic formulation of the same network based on Stein variational gradient descent and find that in addition to providing useful measures of predictive uncertainty, the probabilistic (Bayesian) version improves on its deterministic counterpart in terms of predictive skill. Finally, we characterize the reliability of the ensemble of ML models obtained in the probabilistic setting by using analysis tools developed in the context of ensemble numerical weather prediction.