论文标题

将社会规范纳入基于可配置的代理的决定模型,以执行通勤行为

Incorporating social norms into a configurable agent-based model of the decision to perform commuting behaviour

论文作者

Greener, Robert, Lewis, Daniel, Reades, Jon, Miles, Simon, Cummins, Steven

论文摘要

建议将增加积极通勤的干预措施作为增加人口体育锻炼的方法,但证据好坏参半。与旅行行为有关的社会规范可能会影响积极通勤干预措施的吸收,但在设计和评估中很少考虑。在这项研究中,我们开发了一个基于代理的模型,该模型结合了与旅行行为相关的社会规范,并通过实施无汽车的星期三来证明这一点的实用性。英国伦敦沃尔瑟姆森林的合成人口是使用微仿真的方法与英国人口普查和英国HLS数据集的数据产生的。使用这种综合人群创建了一个基于代理的模型,该模型建立了同龄人和邻居的行动,亚文化,习惯,天气,自行车所有权,汽车所有权,环境支持和拥堵的影响如何影响决定的决定。开发的模型(动力)是一种基于可配置的代理模型,其中与旅行行为相关的社会规范用于提供更现实的代表社会生态系统,其中可以部署主动通勤干预措施。该模型的效用是使用无汽车的日子作为假设的干预措施来证明的。在控制方案中,主动行进的几率在0.091时合理(89%HPDI:[0.091,0.091])。与对照方案相比,在干预措施的情况下,在非车间的日子中,主动旅行的几率增加了70.3%(89%HPDI:[70.3%,70.3%]);效果持续到无车的日子。该模型是研究社交网络和社会规范如何影响各种干预措施的有效性的有用工具。如果使用现实世界中的环境数据配置,则可能对调查社会规范如何与建筑环境相互作用以引起通勤约定的出现可能很有用。

Interventions to increase active commuting have been recommended as a method to increase population physical activity, but evidence is mixed. Social norms related to travel behaviour may influence the uptake of active commuting interventions but are rarely considered in their design and evaluation. In this study we develop an agent-based model that incorporates social norms related to travel behaviour and demonstrate the utility of this through implementing car-free Wednesdays. A synthetic population of Waltham Forest, London, UK was generated using a microsimulation approach with data from the UK Census 2011 and UK HLS datasets. An agent-based model was created using this synthetic population which modelled how the actions of peers and neighbours, subculture, habit, weather, bicycle ownership, car ownership, environmental supportiveness, and congestion affect the decision to trave. The developed model (MOTIVATE) is a configurable agent-based model where social norms related to travel behaviour are used to provide a more realistic representation of the socio-ecological systems in which active commuting interventions may be deployed. The utility of this model is demonstrated using car-free days as a hypothetical intervention. In the control scenario, the odds of active travel were plausible at 0.091 (89% HPDI: [0.091, 0.091]). Compared to the control scenario, the odds of active travel were increased by 70.3% (89% HPDI: [70.3%, 70.3%]), in the intervention scenario, on non-car-free days; the effect is sustained to non-car-free days. The model is a useful tool for investigating the effect of how social networks and social norms influence the effectiveness of various interventions. If configured using real-world built environment data, it may be useful for investigating how social norms interact with the built environment to cause the emergence of commuting conventions.

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