论文标题

关于解决条件性问题及其对表征统计证据的影响

On Resolving Problems with Conditionality and Its Implications for Characterizing Statistical Evidence

论文作者

Evans, Michael, Frangakis, Constantine

论文摘要

条件性原则$ c $在尝试表征统计证据的概念方面起着关键作用。 $ c $的标准版本考虑了一个模型和一个衍生的条件模型,该模型是由该模型的辅助统计量与数据以及其统计证据内容相等的。该等效性被认为对模型的任何辅助统计量都持有,但造成了两个问题。首先,在给定情况下可能有多个最大辅助性,这导致$ c $不是等价关系,因此,质疑$ c $是否是统计证据的正确表征。其次,当另一个辅助$ b $变化,从拥有一个已知分配$ p_ {b}到拥有另一个已知分布$ q_ {b}时,统计$ a $可能会从辅助变为信息(在边际分布)变化(在边际分布中)。因此,将条件限制在与任何其他辅助统计量无关的辅助状态的辅助术中是很自然的,而且实际上很重要。这导致了一个辅助家族,有一个独特的最大成员。这也给出了一个新的推论原则,即稳定的条件性原则,该原则满足了任何目的是表征统计证据所需的标准。

The conditionality principle $C$ plays a key role in attempts to characterize the concept of statistical evidence. The standard version of $C$ considers a model and a derived conditional model, formed by conditioning on an ancillary statistic for the model, together with the data, to be equivalent with respect to their statistical evidence content. This equivalence is considered to hold for any ancillary statistic for the model but creates two problems. First, there can be more than one maximal ancillary in a given context and this leads to $C$ not being an equivalence relation and, as such, calls into question whether $C$ is a proper characterization of statistical evidence. Second, a statistic $A$ can change from ancillary to informative (in its marginal distribution) when another ancillary $B$ changes, from having one known distribution $P_{B},$ to having another known distribution $Q_{B}.$ This means that the stability of ancillarity differs across ancillary statistics and raises the issue of when a statistic can be said to be truly ancillary. It is therefore natural, and practically important, to limit conditioning to the set of ancillaries whose distribution is irrelevant to the ancillary status of any other ancillary statistic. This results in a family of ancillaries for which there is a unique maximal member. This also gives a new principle for inference, the stable conditionality principle, that satisfies the criteria required for any principle whose aim is to characterize statistical evidence.

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