论文标题
3D指数,用于测量现代国际和全球金融危机的经济韧性
A 3D index for measuring economic resilience with application to the modern international and global financial crises
论文作者
论文摘要
经济弹性的研究和测量由与描述经济体系的各种结构,功能,空间性和动态相关的高度复杂性统治。为了满足整合的需求,本文开发了三维指数,捕获了经济弹性的工程,生态和进化方面,这些方面在当前文献中被分别考虑。拟议的指数是根据1960 - 2020年期间全球国家的GDP数据计算的,该指数被认为是14个被认为是冲击的危机,并在其组成部分的概念背景下被发现了很好的定义。它在实际数据上的应用允许在经济弹性方面对国家进行新的分类,并揭示了该属性的地理模式和结构决定因素。令人印象深刻的是,经济弹性似乎与主要生产率系数,重力驱动,并依赖于农业专业化,在低层中具有很高的结构异质性。此外,该分析通过塑造全球经济复原力图,揭示其地理分布中的地理双重性和离心模式来填补文献差距和大洋洲。最后,该分析提供了对2008年对全球影响的影响的见解,并支持了进一步的研究假设,即政治不稳定是低经济弹性的主要决定因素,以解决进一步研究的途径。
The study and measurement of economic resilience is ruled by high level of complexity related to the diverse structure, functionality, spatiality, and dynamics describing economic systems. Towards serving the demand of integration, this paper develops a three-dimensional index, capturing engineering, ecological, and evolutionary aspects of economic resilience that are considered separately in the current literature. The proposed index is computed on GDP data of worldwide countries, for the period 1960-2020, concerning 14 crises considered as shocks, and was found well defined in a conceptual context of its components. Its application on real-world data allows introducing a novel classification of countries in terms of economic resilience, and reveals geographical patterns and structural determinants of this attribute. Impressively enough, economic resilience appears positively related to major productivity coefficients, gravitationally driven, and depended on agricultural specialization, with high structural heterogeneity in the low class. Also, the analysis fills the literature gap by shaping the worldwide map of economic resilience, revealing geographical duality and centrifugal patterns in its geographical distribution, a relationship between diachronically good performance in economic resilience and geographical distance from the shocks origin, and a continent differentiation expressed by the specialization of America in engineering resilience, Africa and Asia in ecological and evolutionary resilience, and a relative lag of Europe and Oceania. Finally, the analysis provides insights into the effect of the 2008 on the globe and supports a further research hypothesis that political instability is a main determinant of low economic resilience, addressing avenues of further research.