论文标题
轨道使用的经济学：开放访问，外部成本和失控的碎片增长
The Economics of Orbit Use: Open Access, External Costs, and Runaway Debris Growth
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个动态的地球轨道使用的动态物理经济模型，并研究了内源性卫星碰撞风险，以研究条件下，在该条件下，轨道体之间产生碎屑的碰撞会导致碎屑生长，从而使地球轨道变得无法使用，这是一种被称为Kessler综合征的结果。我们表征了在开放访问下以及外部成本（额外的卫星发射对所有卫星面临的碰撞风险的影响）何时进行的，我们表明凯斯勒综合症在这两种情况下都可以出现。最后，我们表明，一旦建立了卫星发射的经济激励措施，凯斯勒综合症出现了，自闭症碎片的生长至关重要。在我们的主要校准中，凯斯勒综合征可以在2040年至2184年之间随时出现，确切的日期对自催化碎片生长参数的校准非常敏感。
We present a dynamic physico-economic model of Earth orbit use with endogenous satellite collision risk to study conditions under which debris-producing collisions between orbiting bodies result in debris growth that may render Earth's orbits unusable, an outcome known as Kessler Syndrome. We characterize the dynamics of objects in orbit under open access as well as when external costs -- the impact of an additional satellite launch on the collision risk faced by all satellites -- are internalized, and we show that Kessler Syndrome can emerge in both cases. Finally, we show that once the economic incentives of satellite launching are modeled, for Kessler Syndrome to emerge, autocatalytic debris growth is essential. In our main calibration, Kessler Syndrome can emerge anytime between the year 2040 and the year 2184, with the precise date being very sensitive to the calibration of autocatalytic debris growth parameters.
