论文标题

用于管理未来大流行的经济政策方向的流行病室模型

An Epidemic Compartment Model for Economic Policy Directions for Managing Future Pandemic

论文作者

Sinkala, Zachariah, Manathunga, Vajira, Fayissa, Bichaka

论文摘要

在这项研究中,我们开发了一个框架来使用SIR流行模型的扩展来分析经济与共同-19大流行之间的相互作用。首先,我们假设有两项与健康相关的投资,包括一般医疗支出,另一个用于控制大流行的直接投资。我们将与病毒管理相关的学习动力纳入了我们的模型。鉴于社会中的劳动力取决于流行病的状态,我们允许在我们的模型中出生,死亡和疫苗接种,并假设劳动力由易感性,接种疫苗和恢复的个体组成。我们还假设我们的流行病室模型中的参数取决于投资量,以直接控制流行病,社会中各个代表代理人的健康库存以及对社区流行病的知识或学习。通过控制消费,一般的医疗支出以及控制流行病的资金的直接投资,我们优化了代表个人因消费而实现的公用事业。这个问题是不平凡的,因为疾病动力学导致非凸优化问题。

In this research, we develop a framework to analyze the interaction between the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic using an extension of SIR epidemic model. At the outset, we assume there are two health related investments including general medical expenditures and the other for a direct investment for controlling the pandemic. We incorporate the learning dynamics associated with the management of the virus into our model. Given that the labor force in a society depends on the state of the epidemic, we allow birth, death, and vaccination to occur in our model and assume labor force consists of the susceptible, vaccinated, and recovered individuals. We also assume parameters in our epidemic compartmental model depend on investment amount for directly controlling the epidemic, the health stock of individual representative agents in the society, and the knowledge or learning about the epidemic in the community. By controlling consumption, the general medical expenditure, and the direct investment of funds for controlling the epidemic, we optimize the utility realized by the representative individuals because of consumption. This problem is nontrivial since the disease dynamics results in a non-convex optimization problem.

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