论文标题
行为流行病学：一种经济模型，用于评估大流行期最佳政策
Behavioral epidemiology: An economic model to evaluate optimal policy in the midst of a pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
本文将疾病动态的规范流行病学模型与政府的锁定和测试政策结合在一起，以及代理人决定社会距离的决定，以避免被感染。该模型通过有关死亡和测试结果的数据进行校准。结果表明，当死亡率和GDP都被考虑时，中间但延长的锁定在社会上是最佳的。这是因为政府希望经济继续产生一些产出，而减少感染的懈怠是由社会距离的代理人所吸引的。社会距离最佳地响应了最佳政府政策，以将有效的生殖数量保持一致，并通过大流行避免多波浪。校准表明测试是有效的，但是如果从大流行开始就积极追求它，它可能会更具工具性。没有任何封锁或关闭社会距离会带来极大的后果。对社会活动的更大集中控制将进一步减轻大流行的传播。
This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths and testing outcomes in the Unites States. It is shown that an intermediate but prolonged lockdown is socially optimal when both mortality and GDP are taken into account. This is because the government wants the economy to keep producing some output and the slack in reducing infection is picked up by social distancing agents. Social distancing best responds to the optimal government policy to keep the effective reproductive number at one and avoid multiple waves through the pandemic. Calibration shows testing to have been effective, but it could have been even more instrumental if it had been aggressively pursued from the beginning of the pandemic. Not having any lockdown or shutting down social distancing would have had extreme consequences. Greater centralized control on social activities would have mitigated further the spread of the pandemic.
