论文标题
模拟模型的贝叶斯校准:教程和澳大利亚吸烟行为模型
Bayesian calibration of simulation models: A tutorial and an Australian smoking behaviour model
论文作者
论文摘要
流行病学,生物学,生态和环境过程的仿真模型正在越来越多地使用贝叶斯统计数据进行校准。贝叶斯方法提供了简单的规则来综合多个数据源,并由于校准数据的不确定性而计算模型输出的不确定性。随着所发表的教程和研究的数量的增加,这些领域贝叶斯校准的共同困难的解决方案变得越来越明显,并且在所有这些领域中成功校准的逐步过程都出现了。我们提供了贝叶斯校准中关键步骤的陈述,并概述了从其中一个或多个应用科学中出现的每个步骤的分析和方法。因此,我们提出了跨越许多科学学科的贝叶斯校准方法的综合。 为了展示这些步骤并提供有关贝叶斯校准涉及的计算的进一步详细信息,我们在澳大利亚校准了烟草吸烟行为的隔室模型。我们发现,估计在2016年达到20岁之前会吸烟的出生队列比例是自20世纪初以来的最低价值,而退出率最高。作为一个新的结果,我们量化了前吸烟者在以后的生活中进行调查时改用为“永不吸烟者”的速度。据我们所知,这种现象从未使用横断面调查数据进行量化。
Simulation models of epidemiological, biological, ecological, and environmental processes are increasingly being calibrated using Bayesian statistics. The Bayesian approach provides simple rules to synthesise multiple data sources and to calculate uncertainty in model output due to uncertainty in the calibration data. As the number of tutorials and studies published grow, the solutions to common difficulties in Bayesian calibration across these fields have become more apparent, and a step-by-step process for successful calibration across all these fields is emerging. We provide a statement of the key steps in a Bayesian calibration, and we outline analyses and approaches to each step that have emerged from one or more of these applied sciences. Thus we present a synthesis of Bayesian calibration methodologies that cut across a number of scientific disciplines. To demonstrate these steps and to provide further detail on the computations involved in Bayesian calibration, we calibrated a compartmental model of tobacco smoking behaviour in Australia. We found that the proportion of a birth cohort estimated to take up smoking before they reach age 20 years in 2016 was at its lowest value since the early 20th century, and that quit rates were at their highest. As a novel outcome, we quantified the rate that ex-smokers switched to reporting as a 'never smoker' when surveyed later in life; a phenomenon that, to our knowledge, has never been quantified using cross-sectional survey data.