论文标题
Covid-19疫苗犹豫不决和大型影响者
Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy and mega-influencers
论文作者
论文摘要
COVID-19-19在美国广泛使用,但我们的COVID-19疫苗接种率仍然远低于100%。不仅如此,CDC的数据还表明,即使在COVID-19疫苗接种工作开始时疫苗接收量高高的地方,也不一定会在随后的几个月内转化为疫苗接种率很高。我们使用参数与阿拉巴马州的数据一致,我们对这种转变进行建模。模拟表明,在阿拉巴马州,当地的互动将有利于在最初的多数观点周围达成紧密共识的出现,即接受Covid-19-19疫苗。但这不是发生的事情。因此,我们将大众媒体,国家州长等大型影响者的影响添加到我们的模型中。我们的模拟表明,单一的疫苗媒介巨型巨型影响者,达到了很大一部分人口,确实会导致共识从根本上转移,从接受,从接受到犹豫。令人惊讶的是,即使大型企业家只接触到已经有些倾向于同意他们的人,并且在保守的假设下,个人对大型企业家的体重不超过他们给他们的一个朋友或邻居或邻居的保守,这也是如此。我们的模拟还表明,具有相反观点的竞争性超级影响者可以改变平均人口意见,但不能恢复这种观点周围的共识的紧密度。我们的代码和数据分布在https://github.com/annahaensch/dodn的ODODN(意见动态网络)库中。
Covid-19 vaccines are widely available in the United States, yet our Covid-19 vaccination rates have remained far below 100%. Not only that, but CDC data shows that even in places where vaccine acceptance was proportionally high at the outset of the Covid-19 vaccination effort, that willingness has not necessarily translated into high rates of vaccination over the subsequent months. We model how such a shift could have arisen, using parameters in agreement with data from the state of Alabama. The simulations suggest that in Alabama, local interactions would have favored the emergence of tight consensus around the initial majority view, which was to accept the Covid-19 vaccine. Yet this is not what happened. We therefore add to our model the impact of mega-influencers such as mass media, the governor of the state, etc. Our simulations show that a single vaccine-hesitant mega-influencer, reaching a large fraction of the population, can indeed cause the consensus to shift radically, from acceptance to hesitancy. Surprisingly this is true even when the mega-influencer only reaches individuals who are already somewhat inclined to agree with them, and under the conservative assumption that individuals give no more weight to the mega-influencer than they would give to a single one of their friends or neighbors. Our simulations also suggest that a competing mega-influencer with the opposite view can shift the mean population opinion back, but cannot restore the tightness of consensus around that view. Our code and data are distributed in the ODyN (Opinion Dynamic Networks) library available at https://github.com/annahaensch/ODyN.