论文标题
使用注意力增强卷积的极端降水预测
Extreme precipitation forecasting using attention augmented convolutions
论文作者
论文摘要
极端的降水在世界范围内造成严重破坏,造成数十亿美元的破坏,并连根拔起社区,生态系统和经济体。准确的极端降水预测为此类极端事件提供了更多时间进行准备和灾难风险管理。在本文中,我们专注于从一系列海平面压力和区域风异常的短期极端降水预测(提前12小时预测)。尽管现有的机器学习方法显示出令人鼓舞的结果,但相关的模型和气候不确定性可能会降低其可靠性。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种自我发挥的增强卷积机制,以进行极端降水预测,系统地将注意力评分与传统的卷积相结合,以丰富特征数据并减少结果的预期错误。提出的网络体系结构与高速公路神经网络层进一步融合,以在几层中获得未受阻碍的信息流的好处。我们的实验结果表明,该框架的表现优于经典卷积模型12%。提出的方法将机器学习作为一种工具,以洞悉改变极端的物理原因,从而降低未来预测的不确定性。
Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster risk management for such extreme events. In this paper, we focus on short-term extreme precipitation forecasting (up to a 12-hour ahead-of-time prediction) from a sequence of sea level pressure and zonal wind anomalies. Although existing machine learning approaches have shown promising results, the associated model and climate uncertainties may reduce their reliability. To address this issue, we propose a self-attention augmented convolution mechanism for extreme precipitation forecasting, systematically combining attention scores with traditional convolutions to enrich feature data and reduce the expected errors of the results. The proposed network architecture is further fused with a highway neural network layer to gain the benefits of unimpeded information flow across several layers. Our experimental results show that the framework outperforms classical convolutional models by 12%. The proposed method increases machine learning as a tool for gaining insights into the physical causes of changing extremes, lowering uncertainty in future forecasts.