论文标题
使用Dre-Cusum无监督的变更检测
Unsupervised Change Detection using DRE-CUSUM
论文作者
论文摘要
本文介绍了DRE-CUSUM,这是一种基于无监督的密度比率估计(DRE)方法,以确定在没有可用后变化后分布的了解时,确定时间序列数据的统计变化。提出的方法背后的核心思想是将时间序列分开,并估算分布点之前和之后的分布密度(使用参数模型,例如神经网络)的比率。然后,Dre-Cusum变化检测统计量从估计密度比的对数的累积总和(cusum)得出。我们提出了理论上的理由以及准确性保证,表明所提出的统计量可以可靠地检测统计变化,而与分配点无关。据我们所知,虽然先前有关于使用基于密度比率的方法进行变更检测的工作,但这是使用理论上的理由和准确性保证的第一个无监督的变更检测方法。所提出的框架的简单性使其很容易适用于各种实际设置(包括高维时序数据);我们还讨论了在线变更检测的概括。我们在实验中使用合成数据集和现实世界数据集比现有的无监督算法(例如贝叶斯在线变更检测,其变体以及其他几种启发式方法),在实验上显示了Dre-Cusum的优势。
This paper presents DRE-CUSUM, an unsupervised density-ratio estimation (DRE) based approach to determine statistical changes in time-series data when no knowledge of the pre-and post-change distributions are available. The core idea behind the proposed approach is to split the time-series at an arbitrary point and estimate the ratio of densities of distribution (using a parametric model such as a neural network) before and after the split point. The DRE-CUSUM change detection statistic is then derived from the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of the logarithm of the estimated density ratio. We present a theoretical justification as well as accuracy guarantees which show that the proposed statistic can reliably detect statistical changes, irrespective of the split point. While there have been prior works on using density ratio based methods for change detection, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first unsupervised change detection approach with a theoretical justification and accuracy guarantees. The simplicity of the proposed framework makes it readily applicable in various practical settings (including high-dimensional time-series data); we also discuss generalizations for online change detection. We experimentally show the superiority of DRE-CUSUM using both synthetic and real-world datasets over existing state-of-the-art unsupervised algorithms (such as Bayesian online change detection, its variants as well as several other heuristic methods).