论文标题
应用机器学习和AI解释来分析疫苗犹豫
Applying Machine Learning and AI Explanations to Analyze Vaccine Hesitancy
论文作者
论文摘要
本文量化了美国大陆县的种族,贫困,政治和年龄对COVID-19的疫苗接种率的影响。 OLS回归分析和随机森林机器学习算法都应用于量化县级疫苗接种犹豫的因素。机器学习模型同时考虑了变量(种族/民族,党派,年龄等)的联合影响,以捕获这些因素对疫苗接种率的独特组合。通过实施最先进的人工智能解释(AIX)算法,可以通过机器学习模型解决黑匣子问题,并为每个县的每个测量影响因素提供“多少”问题的答案。对于大多数县,共和党人的投票百分比更高,非裔美国人人口份额更高,较高的贫困率降低了疫苗接种率。虽然较高的亚洲人口份额增加了预测的疫苗接种率。在OLS模型中,西班牙裔人口比例对疫苗接种率的影响是正,但在随机森林模型中,西班牙裔人口较高(> 65%)的县仅为阳性。县的老年人的比例和年轻人的比例分别对OLS模型产生了重大影响 - 分别是正面和消极的。相反,在随机森林模型中,影响是模棱两可的。由于地理位置之间的结果有所不同,并且由于AIX算法能够量化疫苗对每个县的影响,因此该研究可以针对当地社区量身定制。可以在https://www.cpp.edu/~clange/vacmap.html上获得一个识别各个美国县影响因素的交互式在线映射仪表板。显然,影响因素的影响在不同地理位置上并不普遍。
The paper quantifies the impact of race, poverty, politics, and age on COVID-19 vaccination rates in counties in the continental US. Both, OLS regression analysis and Random Forest machine learning algorithms are applied to quantify factors for county-level vaccination hesitancy. The machine learning model considers joint effects of variables (race/ethnicity, partisanship, age, etc.) simultaneously to capture the unique combination of these factors on the vaccination rate. By implementing a state-of-the-art Artificial Intelligence Explanations (AIX) algorithm, it is possible to solve the black box problem with machine learning models and provide answers to the "how much" question for each measured impact factor in every county. For most counties, a higher percentage vote for Republicans, a greater African American population share, and a higher poverty rate lower the vaccination rate. While a higher Asian population share increases the predicted vaccination rate. The impact on the vaccination rate from the Hispanic population proportion is positive in the OLS model, but only positive for counties with a high Hispanic population (>65%) in the Random Forest model. Both the proportion of seniors and the one for young people in a county have a significant impact in the OLS model - positive and negative, respectively. In contrast, the impacts are ambiguous in the Random Forest model. Because results vary between geographies and since the AIX algorithm is able to quantify vaccine impacts individually for each county, this research can be tailored to local communities. An interactive online mapping dashboard that identifies impact factors for individual U.S. counties is available at https://www.cpp.edu/~clange/vacmap.html. It is apparent that the influence of impact factors is not universally the same across different geographies.