论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Persistence of temperature and precipitation: from local to global anomalies
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) we find that all continents are persistent in temperature. The scaling exponents of the southern hemisphere (SH) continents, i.e., South America (0.77) and Oceania (0.72) are somewhat higher than scaling exponents of Europe (0.70), Asia (0.69) and North America (0.64), but the scaling of Africa is by far the highest (0.86). The reason for this is the location of Africa near the equator. The scaling exponents of the precipitation are much smaller, i.e. between 0.55 (Europe) and 0.68 (North America). The scaling exponent of Europe is near that of the random noise (0.5), while the other continents are slightly persistent in precipitation. We also show that the persistence disappears in all time series when shuffling the data randomly, showing that persistence is not an intrinsic property of the estimator. We find that the monthly temperature is the more persistent the more wide area is analyzed. The persistence of precipitation is also increasing as a function of area, although not so clearly. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the persistence of the temperature decreases poleward in both hemispheres. The persistence of precipitation is also highest at equatorial zones, and decreases poleward, but is less dependent on the latitude than temperature. It seems that the persistence of the precipitation is more dependent on the corresponding climate type than the persistence of the temperature.
