论文标题

信任或库存:在供应链短缺中对人类模拟相互作用进行建模

To Trust or to Stockpile: Modeling Human-Simulation Interaction in Supply Chain Shortages

论文作者

Mohaddesi, Omid, Griffin, Jacqueline, Ergun, Ozlem, Kaeli, David, Marsella, Stacy, Harteveld, Casper

论文摘要

了解动态和复杂环境中的决策是一个挑战,但对于预防,缓解和应对不良事件(例如,灾难,金融危机)至关重要。仿真游戏已显示出希望在这种情况下提高我们对决策的理解。但是,关于我们如何从这些游戏中提取有用信息的一个公开问题。我们通过利用现有方法来表征以下方式来建模人类模拟相互作用的方法:(1)动态模拟环境的系统状态(对主要成分分析),(2)来自人类与模拟(隐藏马尔可夫模型)的行为响应(与隐藏的马尔可夫模型),以及(3)跨系统状态(序列分析)的行为响应(3)。我们通过游戏在供应链环境中模拟药物短缺来证明这种方法。我们对135名参与者的实验研究的结果表明,不同的玩家类型(ho积,反应堆,追随者),不同系统状态的行为变化以及共享信息如何影响行为。我们讨论我们的发现如何挑战现有文献。

Understanding decision-making in dynamic and complex settings is a challenge yet essential for preventing, mitigating, and responding to adverse events (e.g., disasters, financial crises). Simulation games have shown promise to advance our understanding of decision-making in such settings. However, an open question remains on how we extract useful information from these games. We contribute an approach to model human-simulation interaction by leveraging existing methods to characterize: (1) system states of dynamic simulation environments (with Principal Component Analysis), (2) behavioral responses from human interaction with simulation (with Hidden Markov Models), and (3) behavioral responses across system states (with Sequence Analysis). We demonstrate this approach with our game simulating drug shortages in a supply chain context. Results from our experimental study with 135 participants show different player types (hoarders, reactors, followers), how behavior changes in different system states, and how sharing information impacts behavior. We discuss how our findings challenge existing literature.

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