论文标题
国家的财富和人口健康：主权债务危机对儿童死亡率的影响的准实验设计
The wealth of nations and the health of populations: A quasi-experimental design of the impact of sovereign debt crises on child mortality
论文作者
论文摘要
国家的财富和人口健康密切相关，但是经济繁荣（人均GDP）导致改善健康的程度仍然存在争议。本文的目的是分析主权债务危机（SDC）对儿童死亡率的影响，使用57个低收入和中等收入国家通过1990年至2015年之间的人口统计和健康调查进行调查的样本。这些调查提供了229个家庭数据，并包含约300万分娩历史记录。这种对SDC而不是GDP的关注提供了一个准实验时刻，在这种时刻，未观察到的混杂的影响远不止于分析GDP的正常波动的时刻。这项研究测量了六个阈值的儿童死亡率：新生儿，一份（婴儿），二岁以下，三岁以下，四岁以下和五岁以下的死亡率。使用机器学习（ML）模型进行因果推断，这项研究发现，尽管SDC对新生儿死亡率产生不利但统计学上无关紧要的影响，但所有其他儿童死亡率组都在0.12至0.14的概率上受到不利影响（在95％的阈值中，所有统计学上都有统计学意义）。通过这项ML，这项研究还发现，在整个调整集中，最重要的治疗异质性主持人是孩子是否出生于低收入国家。
The wealth of nations and the health of populations are intimately strongly associated, yet the extent to which economic prosperity (GDP per capita) causes improved health remains disputed. The purpose of this article is to analyze the impact of sovereign debt crises (SDC) on child mortality, using a sample of 57 low- and middle-income countries surveyed by the Demographic and Health Survey between the years 1990 and 2015. These surveys supply 229 household data and containing about 3 million childbirth history records. This focus on SDC instead of GDP provides a quasi-experimental moment in which the influence of unobserved confounding is less than a moment analyzing the normal fluctuations of GDP. This study measures child mortality at six thresholds: neonatal, under-one (infant), under-two, under-three, under-four, and under-five mortality. Using a machine-learning (ML) model for causal inference, this study finds that while an SDC causes an adverse yet statistically insignificant effect on neonatal mortality, all other child mortality group samples are adversely affected between a probability of 0.12 to 0.14 (all statistically significant at the 95-percent threshold). Through this ML, this study also finds that the most important treatment heterogeneity moderator, in the entire adjustment set, is whether a child is born in a low-income country.
