论文标题
欧洲和美国的Covid-19第二波死亡率
COVID-19 second wave mortality in Europe and the United States
论文作者
论文摘要
本文介绍了新方法，以分析19例19例病例的变化对大流行波的死亡的变化。首先，算法方法将每个国家或州的共同时间序列分为第一波和随后的时期。接下来，通过标准化的内部产品为每个国家学习案例和死亡时间序列之间的偏移。结合其他计算，我们可以确定哪些国家最大程度地降低了Covid-19的死亡率。最后，我们的论文确定了欧洲国家和美国州的案件和死亡轨迹中的相似性。我们的分析完善了流行的概念，即在欧洲第二次COVID-19，在整个欧洲的死亡率大大降低了。取而代之的是，我们在整个欧洲和美国都表现出了实质性的异质性，荷兰表现出死亡率最大的降低，其次是16倍，其次是丹麦，法国，比利时和其他西欧国家，比东欧国家和美国州大。在欧洲和美国之间观察到一些结构相似性，在该州，东北国家在该国最成功。这种分析可能会帮助欧洲国家从彼此的经验中学习，并取得不同的成功，以制定最佳政策，以打击Covid-19作为集体单位。
This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave and subsequent period. Next, offsets between case and death time series are learned for each country via a normalized inner product. Combining these with additional calculations, we can determine which countries have most substantially reduced the mortality rate of COVID-19. Finally, our paper identifies similarities in the trajectories of cases and deaths for European countries and U.S. states. Our analysis refines the popular conception that the mortality rate has greatly decreased throughout Europe during its second wave of COVID-19; instead, we demonstrate substantial heterogeneity throughout Europe and the U.S. The Netherlands exhibited the largest reduction of mortality, a factor of 16, followed by Denmark, France, Belgium, and other Western European countries, greater than both Eastern European countries and U.S. states. Some structural similarity is observed between Europe and the United States, in which Northeastern states have been the most successful in the country. Such analysis may help European countries learn from each other's experiences and differing successes to develop the best policies to combat COVID-19 as a collective unit.
