论文标题

基于星际闪烁观测值的磁性水力动力学模拟对冠状质量弹出时间预测的验证

Validation of Coronal Mass Ejection Arrival-Time Forecasts by Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations based on Interplanetary Scintillation Observations

论文作者

Iwai, Kazumasa, Shiota, Daikou, Tokumaru, Munetoshi, Fujiki, Kenichi, Den, Mitsue, Kubo, Yûki

论文摘要

冠状质量弹出(CME)会导致空间环境的各种干扰;因此,预测他们的到达时间非常重要。然而,在行星际空间中的CME观测值有限,预测准确性受到了阻碍。这项研究研究了基于行星际闪烁(IPS)观测值的三维(3D)磁性流动力(MHD)模拟的CME到达时间的准确性。在此系统中,CME近似为具有不同初始速度的Spheromaks。测试了具有不同CME初始速度的10个MHD模拟,并将每个模拟运行得出的密度分布与Nagoya大学太空 - 地球环境研究研究所(ISEE)观察到的IPS数据进行了比较。模拟运行的CME到达时间最紧密地与IPS数据一致作为预测时间。然后,我们使用12个Halo CME事件验证此预测的准确性。基于IPS的MHD预测的平均绝对到达误差约为5.0 h,这是有史以来验证的最准确的预测之一,而没有IPS数据的MHD模拟的最准确的预测,其中初始CME速度源自白光coronagraph图像,约为6.7 h。这表明将IPS数据吸收到MHD模拟中可以提高CME到达时间预测的准确性。平均预测到达时间比实际到达时间较早。这些早期的预测可能是由于对球形瘤中包含的磁场的高估和/或从背景太阳风中低估了阻力力,后者的磁场可能与CME大小或背景太阳风密度的低估有关。

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause various disturbances of the space environment; therefore, forecasting their arrival time is very important. However, forecasting accuracy is hindered by limited CME observations in interplanetary space. This study investigates the accuracy of CME arrival times at the Earth forecasted by three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations based on interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations. In this system, CMEs are approximated as spheromaks with various initial speeds. Ten MHD simulations with different CME initial speed are tested, and the density distributions derived from each simulation run are compared with IPS data observed by the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University. The CME arrival time of the simulation run that most closely agrees with the IPS data is selected as the forecasted time. We then validate the accuracy of this forecast using 12 halo CME events. The average absolute arrival-time error of the IPS-based MHD forecast is approximately 5.0 h, which is one of the most accurate predictions that ever been validated, whereas that of MHD simulations without IPS data, in which the initial CME speed is derived from white-light coronagraph images, is approximately 6.7 h. This suggests that the assimilation of IPS data into MHD simulations can improve the accuracy of CME arrival-time forecasts. The average predicted arrival times are earlier than the actual arrival times. These early predictions may be due to overestimation of the magnetic field included in the spheromak and/or underestimation of the drag force from the background solar wind, the latter of which could be related to underestimation of CME size or background solar wind density.

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