论文标题
有一个球：使用比赛趋势估算评估得分连胜和比赛兴奋
Having a Ball: evaluating scoring streaks and game excitement using in-match trend estimation
论文作者
论文摘要
许多受欢迎的运动都涉及两支球队或球员之间的比赛，每个球队都有可能在整个比赛中得分。尽管整个比赛获胜者和结果很有趣，但它几乎没有关于整个比赛中基础得分趋势的信息。需要在整个比赛中适应分数差异的粒度的建模方法，以评估游戏中的策略，讨论比赛的得分，团队的优势和游戏的其他方面。 我们提出了一个潜在的高斯过程，以模拟两个团队之间的分数差异，并将趋势方向指数作为对比赛中当前趋势的易于解释的概率度量以及赛后趋势评估的度量。此外，我们提出了兴奋趋势指数 - 跑步分数差异的预期单调性变化数量 - 衡量整体游戏兴奋。 我们提出的方法适用于2019 - 2020年全国篮球协会（NBA）赛季的所有1143场比赛。我们展示了如何在单个游戏中解释趋势，以及如何根据他们观看的激动人心的兴奋分数来群集团队。
Many popular sports involve matches between two teams or players where each team have the possibility of scoring points throughout the match. While the overall match winner and result is interesting, it conveys little information about the underlying scoring trends throughout the match. Modeling approaches that accommodate a finer granularity of the score difference throughout the match is needed to evaluate in-game strategies, discuss scoring streaks, teams strengths, and other aspects of the game. We propose a latent Gaussian process to model the score difference between two teams and introduce the Trend Direction Index as an easily interpretable probabilistic measure of the current trend in the match as well as a measure of post-game trend evaluation. In addition we propose the Excitement Trend Index - the expected number of monotonicity changes in the running score difference - as a measure of overall game excitement. Our proposed methodology is applied to all 1143 matches from the 2019-2020 National Basketball Association (NBA) season. We show how the trends can be interpreted in individual games and how the excitement score can be used to cluster teams according to how exciting they are to watch.
